Tuesday, April 29, 2008

NFL Draft Review

Alright, time to review the NFL Draft. First, I'll go pick by pick in the first round with my analysis. Eventually, once the dust settles, I'll review the Jets' draft and their undrafted free agents.

1. Miami - OT Jake Long, Michigan
The least suspenseful pick of the first round (although to be fair, ESPN pretty much gave away the first 4 picks before the draft even started), Long was a great lineman at a school known for producing good linemen. The question remains: can he be an elite left tackle in the NFL? I believe he can be an elite right tackle, but you don't take that position #1 overall. Having said that, he's the safest pick in the draft, and Miami needed OLine help in the worst way, and he's a good fit for Miami.
Grade: B+

2. St. Louis - DE Chris Long, Virginia
He has everything you want from a defensive end. He has the motor, the bloodlines, the production, and the talent to be drafted in the top 5. St. Louis needed defensive line help going into the draft. The question here is whether or not it was worth taking Long over Dorsey. Dorsey was more dominant in college, though Long was fantastic as well. Personally, I would have chosen Dorsey, but Chris Long should be a great pro as well.
Grade: B

3. Atlanta - QB Matt Ryan, Boston College
He has a good enough arm, good enough size, good enough accuracy, and good enough production. The only thing great about his game are his intangibles, but he really doesn't have any negatives to his game besides lack of mobility. Ryan has a great chance to be a good quarterback. Is his upside good enough to warrant the #3 overall pick? Probably not, but Atlanta needed a quarterback badly, and Ryan is the anti-Vick.
Grade: C+

4. Oakland - RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas
There is no doubt that Darren McFadden is one of the top 4 talents in the draft. In fact, he's probably the #1 talent. No one blends size, speed, and production like McFadden does, but there are many questions with this pick. With Justin Fargas, Lamont Jordan, and Michael Bush returning from a top 10 rushing attack last year, runningback was far from the top on their list of needs. McFadden also has some off the field issues and major fumbling issues, but the latter can hopefully be corrected. Either way, Glenn Dorsey should have been the pick here.
Grade: C+

5. Kansas City - DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU
Carl Peterson and Herman Edwards could not be happier with Dorsey's fall down the draft board to 5th. With Jared Allen gone, the Chiefs need someone else to provide pressure on the quarterback, and Dorsey fills that role perfectly. Herm wanted a disruptive defensive tackle back in 2003 with the Jets with Dewayne Robertson. Five years later with a new team, he finally has his tackle. Dorsey will provide an inside pass rush to go with Tamba Hali from the outside. Best player available here fits their needs, too.
Grade: A

6. New York Jets - DE/OLB Vernon Gholston, Ohio State
This wasn't the Jets' first choice, but as long as one of the Longs, McFadden, or Gholston were available, the Jets were happy. Gholston fits the role of an edge rusher for the 3-4 to a tee. He's better standing up than with his hand down, and he has a lot of what a 3-4 pass rusher needs. He has the production, the size, and the speed, and unlike popular opinion, he is not a workout warrior. His draft stock has been this high for months; his great workout just cemented his stock. And if he does take plays off and he can still set the Ohio State single season sack record, imagine what he can do if a coach can get him to play every down...
Grade: A-

7. New Orleans Saints - DT Sedrick Ellis
The Saints and Ellis had been linked together for a while because New Orleans made it no secret they wanted to trade up. New England was more than happy to oblige, so the Saints get their man. Ellis is a great fit for New Orleans: he fills a glaring hole, and he was the best player available. The Saints considered the drop off between Ellis and the next best defensive tackle to be quite large, and they didn't give up a whole lot to move up. All in all, the Saints did exactly what they needed to do.
Grade: A

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Derrick Harvey, Florida
This was by far the most shocking move of the first round. With Matt Ryan gone, Baltimore had no interest in this pick. Jacksonville has desperately wanted a speed rusher for years, and the difference between Harvey and the next best pass rusher was huge. Harvey is pretty fast and has good size. He was also very productive on the college level. Despite all that, was it worth giving up 3 extra picks to move up for him? They could have stayed where they were and taken Lawrence Jackson or Quentin Groves. Harvey is better than both players, but by this much? One interesting quote I read justifying the trade by the Jacksonville front office was that they weren't even sure if 3rd or 4th round picks would have made their team this year. If that's the case, it's more understandable. Harvey has ability and he fits a need, but Jacksonville mortgaged a lot on him, and he'll need to produce.
Grade: C+

9. Cincinatti Bengals - LB Keith Rivers, USC
No doubt about it, Rivers was the best available fit for the Bengals in this spot. They sorely wanted Sedrick Ellis, but they also didn't want to trade up. As a result, the Saints leaped ahead of Cincinatti and grabbed their man. Time will tell if they made the right decision not trading up. With 10 picks in the draft, I would have traded up if I were them. Linebacker was a big need last year, but a tackle like Ellis would go a long way towards fixing that linebacker pick. I like the player, but you can't help but think they could have done more here.
Grade: C

10. New England Patriots - LB Jerrod Mayo, Tennessee
Trading down from the 7th pick was a no brainer. Mayo is a good player and a good fit here, but he's a little undersized and he might have been around a little later. His 40 time really moved him up the draft board to where New England felt if they wanted Mayo, they needed to pull the trigger here. The value isn't very good this high, and he might be a tad undersized for the 3-4. If this pick were 12 picks later, I would give it a great grade. As it is, the poor value downgrades the pick a little. At least they got another 3rd rounder.
Grade: B-

11. Buffalo Bills - CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy
This pick makes a lot of sense for Buffalo. McKelvin replaces Nate Clements who bolted for San Francisco last offseason. He is a phenomenal athlete who adds another great returner to go with Terrence McGee. He's the best cornerback in the draft, and while his ball skills leave a lot to be desired, the rest of his game is very worthy of this pick.
Grade: B+

12. Denver Broncos - OT Ryan Clady, Boise State
Denver needed an offensive tackle, and Clady is the best one available. He's a great fit for the Denver scheme and a very good value at 12. This pick started the run on offensive linemen, but Clady and Branden Albert were clearly the two best linemen available. This is exactly who Denver wanted with this pick, and they got him.
Grade: A

13. Carolina Panthers - RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
He's the 2nd best runningback in the draft, and Carolina has no clear #1 runningback. This selection largely negates the pick of DeAngelo Williams of 2006, but Stewart has everything you want from a runningback. His turf toe injury is a concern, and it is risky taking a back with a pre-existing injury, especially one who suffered through several injuries in college. He's a solid value at this pick, and John Fox has to be happy he could get a runningback, as it is evident that Carolina wants to become a running-oriented team again.
Grade: B

14. Chicago Bears - OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt
Chicago obviously did not feel Joe Flacco was worth a pick this high like Baltimore did. Either that or they just viewed offensive line as such a glaring need for them that they would rather fill that. This pick makes a ton of sense for them though. No QB other than Ryan was worth this pick, and their offensive line is old. Williams is still a solid value at this point, as the offensive line run hasn't gotten in full swing yet. He's smart, very athletic, versatile, and a team leader. While he was never as dominant as he should have been in college, those traits hopefully will translate well to the next level with some better coaching.
Grade: B+


15. Kansas City -OG/OT Branden Albert, Virginia
Kansas City was so excited to see Albert dropping this far that they moved up 2 spots to secure him. The heavily considered him at #5 overall, but when Dorsey was there, plans changed. Albert is a steal here, not only because he's top 10 value, but also because at this point, the dropoff continues to grow between offensive linemen. Albert may be the last mid-first round grade quarterback remaining at this point, and he's a perfect fit for Kansas City, who fills it's biggest need in a big way.
Grade: A+

16. Arizona - CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee St
Another team that's extremely happy to see a player who fits their needs fall to them. Arizona has to love that DRC, one of the top 2 cornerbacks in the draft, falls to them at this point of the draft. They need a cornerback in the worst way, and he's as good as they could have hoped for at this point of the draft. Cromartie is a phenomenal athlete like his brother, though it's unfair to put those types of expectations on him. Little brother is still raw, but the athleticism and playmaking ability is there. If he's not ready to play a big role right away, he could start as kick returner.
Grade: A-

17. Detroit - OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston College
Bruising tackle best suited for the right side. Most people had Jeff Otah rated ahead of Cherilus, but Cherilus is more ready to play now, and the Lions probably think they can compete now if they can keep Kitna upright, which they couldn't do last year. A lot of people haven't liked this pick as much, but if Detroit thinks it can win now, Cherilus is the player on the board who can help them most on the offensive line. Taking Cherilus also shows a lot of confidence in Tatum Bell because Rashard Mendenhall was also on the board. The Lions preferred Stewart to Mendenhall, but Mendenhall may have been the best choice for them. They opted to go with a later round runningback, which I can't argue with. Kevin Smith compliments Bell well. Cherilus also might not be the best value here, but as long as they understand he's a right tackle, this pick should work out for them.
Grade: B

18. Baltimore - QB Joe Flacco, Delaware
Flacco is the quarterback that a lot of teams who wanted to get a quarterback seemed to fall in love with late. It makes sense. He's big, he's smart, he has a huge arm, and he works hard. He's any quarterback guru's dream. Baltimore will try to mold him into a great quarterback. He has every physical attribute you could hope for except foot speed. They moved up to jump in front of anyone else who might have wanted him, rumor has it a few teams were interested in moving up to get him, not just Baltimore. Once Matt Ryan was gone, Flacco was their man, and they went up and got him. There's something to be said for a team moving up to make sure it gets the player it wants. They already accumulated a few extra picks from Jacksonville, so they had ammunition. I actually like this pick for them. I hate to say it, but I do think they should give Boller another shot. They buried him pretty early, and while I certainly don't think he's the answer, I think he can get the job done as a starter while Flacco is groomed. They definitely aren't going anywhere this year if they want to start Flacco.
Grade: B-

19. Carolina - OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh
Carolina trades up into the first round to get the big OT they wanted. The Panthers' FO realizes they have a short leash now, so they were willing to trade next year's first to get the best lineman on the board by far. After all, another losing season, and chances are there will be no next season for them. Otah is raw, but he's still good enough to start now. If I were in their shoes, I likely would have done the same thing. It's a pretty steep price, but I can't blame them at all. Otah is already a good player, and hes huge and athletic with the potential to be a lot more. He was once considered a possibility for Kansas City with the 5th pick. Good value.
Grade: B+

20. Tampa Bay - CB Aqib Talib, Kansas
Good cornerback, but is he the 3rd best one in the draft? He's an athletic playmaker, but he takes too many risks. He's extremely confident to a fault, thinking he can make a big play too often. If a coach can hone his natural ability and playmaking skills, he can get a lot out of Talib. A lot of people question if that's possible, however, and off field issues only raise more questions. He's very reminiscent of a DeAngelo Hall type. High bust factor, but if he becomes as good as he thinks he is, and he has the ability to, he can be a star. As is, someone like Antoine Cason or Mike Jenkins might have been a better pick, but Talib does have a greater upside than either player.
Grade: C+

21. Atlanta - OT Sam Baker, USC
Large and athletic, but not a round one grade. They needed an offensive lineman, so they felt they had to trade up into the first round to get him. Is Baker the best lineman left? Probably, but trading up to draft a reach is never a good draft philosophy. This is what you call reaching for a need on a pretty large level. Baker has the athletic ability to make the trade worth it because in the right scheme, like Atlanta's, he's a very good fit. On talent alone, this trade isn't worth it. Atlanta must have a higher grade on Baker than most. The one thing I will say about trading up to fill a need like this is at least they are putting a premium on the offensive line. Sometimes you can't put a price on the offensive line because if that position is weak enough, then the rest of your offense can't run well.
Grade: C

22. Dallas - RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
This was as easy a selection as anything in the draft. Jerry Jones's love for Arkansas players is well-publicized, so even though Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall was still on the board, Jones was the selection here. Is Jones a better all-around runningback than McFadden? Probably not, but Jones has every necessary skill you want from a complimentary back. This wasn't the best pick for most teams picking a runningback, but Dallas is different. Jones was born to be a change of pace back, and he compliments Marion Barber perfectly. Besides, Cowboys fans can still root for a Jones/Barber combination.
Grade: B

23. Pittsburgh - RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Just like Dallas, Pittsburgh is a pretty well-set team with one good runningback who has a question mark going into the next year. Willie Parker has always been undersized, and therefore an injury risk. Parker quieted the doubters for a while, but a fractured fibula ended his season, so he's a question mark going into this year. Najeh Davenport is a good change of pace back, but Mendenhall is at another level. He's a downhill, between the tackles runner with enough speed to hit a home run. He's a good compliment to Parker, and he's a great value at this point. Runningback wasn't the biggest need for Pittsburgh, but there were no offensive linemen worthy of this spot. Philip Merling would have been a good fit here, but the Steelers decided to give Ben Roethlisberger more help.
Grade: B+

24. Tennessee - RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina
Most surprising pick of the first round for sure. Tennessee loves to draft runningbacks (Chris Henry last year, Lendale White the year before that), but Johnson simply makes no sense here. Not only does he play a position that is already filled by two other young runningbacks; not only did Tennessee have the pick of the litter of the wide receiver position, but Johnson isn't even a good value at #24. He's got amazing speed, great athleticism, and very good hands, but for the life of me, I can't understand this. He compliments LenDale White well, but this basically means they're giving up on Chris Henry, and Merling, Lawrence Jackson, Devin Thomas, Limas Sweed, and Kentwan Balmer all were available and all made more sense. Johnson has the potential to be an electrifying player, but chances are, he won't get there, and Titans fans will wonder why Devin Thomas isn't wearing a Titans jersey.
Grade: D-

25. Dallas - CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida
Dallas trades up to get the cornerback they want. I'm a little surprised they moved up because Antoine Cason, Brandon Flowers, and Jenkins were still on the board, and they were only three picks away, but Jenkins is the best of the three and Dallas had the depth and ammunition to go up and get him, so they did. Jenkins is strong, athletic, and physical, and he fits Dallas well. I like Jenkins a lot as a prospect, and Dallas apparently did, too.
Grade: B

26. Houston - OT Duane Brown, Virginia Tech
Brown was a late riser on many draft boards, and when Chris Williams was taken by Chicago and Baltimore was looking to trade up, Houston decided to move down and take Brown. Offensive tackle has been a need for Houston for a while, but Brown is not a first round value. He's a great athlete, but he needs to get stronger, and he's also not very experienced. If Houston is looking for him to contribute a lot as a starter this year, they might be disappointed. There is a lot to like about Brown as a developmental zone-blocking prospect. He's got good size, great athleticism, and good versatility, and at this point, he's the best offensive lineman available. While a lot of people don't like this pick at all, I applaud Houston for at least trading down to take the guy they wanted. He's still a slight reach, but offensive line is one position you can reach for.
Grade: B-

27. San Diego - CB Antoine Cason, Arizona
San Diego is a team without a whole lot of needs. I targeted them at cornerback before the draft because they could use another defensive back to replace Drayton Florence. Trading down could have been an option for them since they didn't have many picks, but Cason was the best player available at a position that they were looking to take, since there had already been runs on the offensive line and runningback. Cason is about all they could have done with this pick, and he makes a lot of sense for them. He's got great instincts and intangibles, and he uses them to make up for his lack of top speed. Good zone cornerback.
Grade: A-

28. Seattle - DE Lawrence Jackson, USC
I didn't really understand this pick either. Jackson will help their defensive line, giving them a bit of a pass rush from the edge, but I thought they had bigger needs than defensive end. Jackson is the best remaining pass rushing defensive end, but many scouts had Philip Merling ahead of Jackson on their boards. I thought this pick would either be Kentwan Balmer or Dustin Keller, but Seattle is a team that does not have a whole lot of needs, and those needs they do have (runningback, tight end, maybe a young offensive lineman) aren't good value here except for Keller. The tight end would have looked great in Seattle's offense, but instead Jackson will push Darryl Tapp for a defensive end job. At least they traded down to take Jackson.
Grade: C+

29. San Francisco - DE/DT Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina
Balmer is a bit of a tweener who will likely play defensive end in the 49ers' 3-4 defense, but I really do not understand this pick. The 49ers' biggest needs were on the offensive line, their middle linebacking corps, and wide receiver. Granted, every offensive lineman who was a potential 1st round pick is gone by now, but Curtis Lofton would have made a whole lot of sense for San Francisco, and Devin Thomas might have even made more sense. Isaac Bruce is old, and Bryant Johnson has never been the man in any offense. With so much uncertainty at receiver, and Devin Thomas or DeSean Jackson or whichever receiver they could want available, it was shocking to see them take a defensive lineman. Mike Martz probably did not get a whole lot of say in this pick.
Grade: C-

30. New York Jets - TE Dustin Keller, Purdue
The Jets made a shocking move here, moving back up into the first round to secure Keller, a very athletic and productive tight end. Keller is essentially a wide receiver who happens to weigh 30 more pounds without losing the speed. He's not a great blocker at this stage, and with his smaller size, he might never be a good blocker, but he's everything the Jets needed on offense. He's a perfect compliment to Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery on the outside and Thomas Jones and Leon Washington in the backfield. He's versatile, hard-working, tough, everything coach Eric Mangini wants in a player. Was he worth trading up for? I don't believe so, but if he's used properly, this pick could end up looking great. If not, this is just another Jets' draft blunder. I like the player; I don't like the move-up to get him. Keller could have easily slipped a few more picks, and if he didn't, the Jets could have grabbed help elsewhere.
Grade: B-

31. New York Giants - Kenny Phillips - S, Miami
The Giants move up to the 31st pick because New England was caught cheating. There really isn't a whole lot to say about this pick. The Giants clearly wanted a safety with their first pick, and Phillips was #1 on their draft board. The Giants and Phillips have been linked together for a long time, so this pick was no surprise. He has everything you could want in a safety, and with some good coaching and improved technique, he could turn out to be a steal. His play did slip a little bit his junior year, which is something you don't like to see, but there's a lot to like with Phillips.
Grade: A-

No comments: