Friday, May 16, 2008

Santana Revisited

Tonight is game 1 of the Subway Series between the Yankees and the Mets. Both teams are struggling coming in; the creative New York media called both teams "Train Wrecks" on their back covers (Subway, train, train wreck, get it? Awesome.), but even more important is the first start for Johan Santana against the Yankees. The Santana saga lasted most of the offseason. The Yankees wanted him, then they didn't, then the Red Sox wanted him, so the Yankees were back in it, then both teams cooled off. It was a polarizing issue among Yankees fans. Some wanted to get the best pitcher in the American League, since they were sick of average starting pitching, while others wanted to let the prospects develop and stick with the plan. When the Mets finally traded for him, fans were shocked because they did not feel the Mets were giving up that much. Sure, they gave up a few top 50 prospects, with Carlos Gomez being the centerpiece, but many fans were appalled that the Yankees couldn't get a deal done, since it did not seem like the Mets gave up a whole lot.

So should the Yankees have made the move? I wasn't in favor of it at the time, but with the struggles of Phil Hughes, it's very easy to second guess. Let's take a look at the two deals reported as being on the table. I did hear that the Twins wanted even more than the two deals that I'm going to go over, but for argument's sake, let's forget that they may have wanted Ian Kennedy as well.

Deal 1: Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera
At the time, Wang was looked down upon by many fans. Wang had another fine regular season, winning 19 games with an ERA of 3.70, posting very similar numbers, except with more strike outs. Despite the increase in K's, he still had the 5th lowest K/9 ratio in the league (he was last in 2006 among qualifiers). He made up for that by allowing the least home runs per 9 innings for the second consecutive year. However, he struggled mightily in the postseason, allowing 14 hits and 12 runs in 5 2/3 postseason innings. As a hard-throwing sinkerballer without many strike outs, many statheads doubted his ability to really improve any further.

Cabrera did not improve on his 2006 rookie season. A very good defensive outfielder with pretty good speed, he is not needed to be a power hitter, but he only posted a .327 OBP and a .391 SLG. His stats were pretty similar, except his walk totals were down from the previous year. Despite that, on opening day, he was only 23 years old, and still had room to improve. As it was, he was probably a below average centerfielder.

Verdict:
Santana has been Santana early on so far. He's always been a second half pitcher, but he's adjusted pretty well to the National League so far. Wang and Cabrera, on the other hand, have both taken major strides forward. Wang's strikeout total has improved, as his K/BB ratio is now an even 2.0. His ERA is down under 3, and his WHIP is down as well as his hits allowed total is down. He added a slider to his arsenal and now looks like a more dominant pitcher. He has half the strikeouts already that he had in all of 2006. Cabrera has 6 home runs this season, after posting season totals of 7 and 8 in the previous two seasons. His OBP is the same as it was last season, but the newfound power has made him a solid enough hitter. His defense remains a plus.

So would I have done this trade in hindsight? Definitely not. While talentwise, the deal is likely fair, the salary difference is immense. Wang is still in his early arbitration years, while Santana just received a 6 year, $138 million dollar contract. For a 29 year old pitcher who doesn't have the greatest build, that is a long contract worth a lot of money. Sure he's worth it now, but will he be worth it in 3-4 years? Obviously he's a better pitcher, but ask the Giants how giving Barry Zito that long a contract is working out? And Wang has been just as good as Santana this season so far, and with the added slider, there's no reason to think he'll be anything but a top notch AL pitcher for the next few years as well.

Deal 2: Cabrera, Phil Hughes, and Austin Jackson
This deal would hurt the farm system greatly, as Hughes and Jackson have even more years under the Yankees' control. Jackson has turned from a project with all the athletic tools to succeed to a major force to be reckoned with on the minor league level. Jackson is likely the team's best offensive prospect, besting Jesus Montero and Jose Tabata. He projects as a 5-tool outfielder who could come up in 2009 or 2010.

Hughes had been the best pitching prospect for the Yankees for several years until Jobamania last year. He has a few plus pitches, and he can control all of them. He dominated the minor leagues before getting the call last year, and he was in the midst of throwing a no hitter against the Texas Rangers last season until he got injured. Hughes is still only 21 years old, the youngest starting pitcher in the big leagues, and he has plenty of time to grow into his skills, even if he does seem injury prone. I'd be shocked if he didn't develop into at least a good starter, assuming he can stay healthy. That might be a big if, though.

Verdict:
I agree with the Yankees that you can't move such key components to your future and give a big contract all in the same deal. I wouldn't have done it then, and I wouldn't do it now, but the team would be in better shape if Santana were here, no doubt. Cashman took a risk going with the kids, and I applaud him for that, but the kids need to work out, or Cashman might be gone.

No comments: